To say that the economy of the US, the Pacific Northwest, and the Greater Seattle area are at an uncertain point of time is an understatement. While pundits and talking heads will say that the stock market is booming or that the trade war is being won with tariffs, the reality is more complicated than a few talking points on TV or short impulsive posts on social media. “Where we are right now is this deep sense of uncertainty, point blank, right?” said Brian Surratt, president and chief executive officer of Greater Seattle Partners. “You can’t make hiring decisions; you can’t make budget decisions. You’re just paralyzed and that is not a good place to be,” Surratt added.
On Wednesday, September 3rd, Rotarians gathered for an informative presentation from Brian Surratt as well as Chris Mefford, founder of Community Attributes Inc. Surratt and Mefford touched on topics and issues that have not only been in focus for the nation, but also the Puget Sound and Seattle areas. From tariffs to taxes; exports to imports; and past to present, both speakers touched on key economic data points for the area. “When we talk about economic impacts on anything, geography matters a lot. You can’t say what the economic impact of something is, without defining the geographic boundary that we’re talking about,” Mefford said.
The Puget Sound economy has grown from timber, to industrial manufacturing, to aerospace, and to its current state of technological innovation. Boeing, Gates, Bezos, and many others found their way to the Puget Sound economy almost by fortuitous accidents. With direct access to the Pacific Ocean, access to top tier higher education institutions, and a near constant population growth over the last several decades, Seattle has been well positioned in the past and continues to be well positioned for the future. “We all know about the historic trajectory of this region,” Surratt said regarding the changes in the economy, “But the question becomes, how can we be more intentional about our economic future?”
Highlighting this idea of intentional transformation, Mefford shared the three key areas for economic development. First, be a great community person foremost and take care of what you have; second, work with what you have; third, go after what you want. “We still believe in the fundamentals of this region, that we can come through with our values intact, but we have to make some choices. We have to make some pretty hard choices on how we want our community to be, and I still do believe that we can be this progressive place that’s also prosperous,” Surratt added to Mefford’s three keys.
Mefford also spoke on an issue that has engrossed Washington D.C.: the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Fund Rates. “Interest rates, of course, I think they get too much attention. The federal government has many other tools that can influence inflation, but it’s only the federal exchange rates that get the attention,” Mefford said. The Fed Funds rate is the interest rate that commercial banks charge each other for overnight loans to meet reserve requirements. This rate impacts everything in our lives from credit card rates, bank savings rates, inflation/deflation, and housing prices/demand. “If you look at mortgage rates for a 30-year average, and the federal funds rate,” Mefford said, “it’s really not that high, right?” Mefford highlighted the hyper-inflationary period of the late 1970s and early 1980s and demonstrated how the mortgage and Fed Fund rates of today are nowhere near as bad as they were then.
In their respective closing remarks, both Mefford and Surratt added their beliefs in the Seattle area economy’s potential for growth and equitable development. “We believe the way you do this is to be a great community person foremost, and take care of what you got,” Mefford said circling back to his three keys. “At the end, at the same time, I work with our advocates to say we’ve got some red flags that we need to be mindful of if we real want this region and economy to continue to be what we hope it to be,” Surratt closed with.
President Jan Levy closed out the meeting circling back on the topic of the economy. President Levy shared an anecdote about a TV ad featuring a child asking a group of adults what the economy is. After each adult in the room gave a wildly different answer, the child finally gives up and says, “I’ll just go look it up myself.” “Hopefully, like me, you have a little bit more knowledge about our regional economy after today’s presentation, and you will be able to answer that question,” President Levy closed with.
Announcements made at the end of the meeting were to remind Rotarians that the Harvest Against Hunger produce glean was rescheduled for this Saturday, September 6th. The next evening event with be a gathering at FareStart on September 10th. The next in-person meeting will be September 17th and will feature guest speakers Jon Scholes and Markham McIntyre at the Rainier Club. The last meeting of the month will be a Zoom only meeting featuring Dorothy Bullitt moderating a panel of Jen Gladish, Garin Wedeking, and Stephen Morris discussing the economic issues facing younger generations.
(Thank you, Logan, and have a nice trip to Vegas!)
