Posted by Dann Mead Smith on Nov 13, 2019
Jeff Pyatt introduced our main speaker, Lennox Scott, the 40-year Chairman and CEO of John L. Scott, which has grown to become one of the top 20 residential real estate brands in the nation.  Lennox was last at our podium in 2011 as we were coming out of the great recession.  He shared his early memory of learning a leadership lesson as a Boy Scout: "do your job so we don't let the team down; we all have our place so the team can excel."
 
He reminded us that he called out the bottom of the market in 2011 and since then there has been incredible growth: "We have seen decades worth in one decade."  But he mentioned the problem of having a shortage of affordable housing as we have seen the median home price more than double in King and some surrounding counties and we are now seeing "an exploding market in Kitsap County."
 
Lennox then went through an interesting set of slides that focused on the "degrees of hotness" that really demonstrated how hot the market in our region is:
 
  • Job growth = "extremely strong." His #1 indicator for the real estate market has always been job growth. It was extremely strong in 2016, then went to very strong, then strong and now back to extremely strong in 2019.
  • Home mortgage rates = are in the 3's which is "unbelievable."  It was 6% in 2007 and he sees it staying in the 3s for the year ahead.
  • Sales activity intensity = "frenzy" which he gave a 65% (with 75% being "extreme frenzy").  His forecast is that the more affordable and mid-priced homes in Seattle will see a 6% price appreciation with 8% in other Puget Sound areas due to a lack of supply.  "We are no longer seeing up to 10% appreciation that we once saw so it's not as explosive."
 
He said we continue to see a shortage of supply and that this year was the best year for luxury home sales and the amount of inventory coming on the market.  The newly passed, almost doubling of the state excise tax is one reason, he said.
 
He asked the rhetorical question, "When is the best time to sell?  It's a trick question as the answer is: when it's the right time for you as it depends on your situation."  He said we are entering the lowest inventory time of the year.  One of the best times to purchase a home is in late summer/early fall as there are lots of listings before the "winter clean up."  He said that "residential housing is very predictable" and reviewed the 6 Phases to the Yearly Housing Cycle: the new year, spring, pre-summer, summer, fall, winter.
 
He answered questions on the impact of climate change on housing, how the digital transformation has impacted their company, and if the condominium market is different from the home market.
 
President Kim concluded the meeting by thanking Lennox Scott "for coming back to Rotary."  She also invited us to join her at the Yakima Rotary's 100th anniversary celebration on December 6th.  They promise "a short program and a long party" to help them celebrate their club turning 100 years old this year.
 
Raymond Tymas-Jones accompanied by Burr Stewart on piano opened our Veterans Day themed-meeting on a cloudy fall day with a rousing version of "The Star-Spangled Banner."  Raymond has an incredible voice and was greeted with long applause as a new member of our club and his first day of leading us in song.  Jaime Mendez provided our inspiration by reflecting on his time in the military for this Veterans Day week. He said Veterans Day is more important to him than his birthday, mainly because it was the time in his life when he was "pushed beyond expectations" and he came out "stronger than before" he went into the Army.

Joel Paget introduced us to our new member Mike Hatzenbeler, President & CEO of Provail (formerly part of United Cerebral Palsy), with a classification of Human & Community Services. They work with people with disabilities to help them realize their full potential and support them to fulfill their life choices. His wife, Peggy was in the audience to share in his introduction to our club!  President Kim welcomed Mike and gave Heather Fitzpatrick, his proposer, a pin as a token of our appreciation for bringing him into our club.
 
Ken Colling then explained our upcoming, annual club election for the Board of Directors and Seattle Rotary Service Foundation Board of Trustees.  There is more information in this week's full Totem. Your electronic ballot must be submitted no later than December 3rd.
 
President Kim introduced the Veterans Day short program that began with me introducing the special tribute video to our member, retired Admiral Tom Hayward that was put together as part of Washington Policy Center's annual champion of freedom award that was presented to Tom at their recent Annual Dinner events.  The four-minute video featured several of our club members (Don Kraft, Bill Center, Jerilyn Brusseau, Mark Davis, and Jimmy Collins). Tom then received a standing ovation as the tribute video concluded. 
 
We then viewed a special video that was put together by Ken Grant highlighting several of our fellow members who have served in the military.  This video featured reflections on what it has meant to them to serve our country in this way.  Some of the themes mentioned in the video included:
 
  • The responsibilities that they learned
  • The people that they worked with
  • That the military focuses on service above self, "which is probably why I love Rotary so much"
  • The importance of hard work and that there is no quitting time
  • That the military does not judge people by how they look or their amount of schooling but instead on the content of their character
  • The sense of purpose and gaining self-confidence
  • The sense of humility and that it shapes people into leaders
  • That we are all human and connected
  • The comradery from working with others
  • That we naturally put limits on ourselves and how the military breaks that model
 
Tom Hayward came to the podium and reflected on Veterans Day and the second video.  It "represents the old and new (members of our club) and why we serve."  He said that he is regularly thanked for his service, especially this time of year and how much he and other veterans appreciate that but that it is deeper than that. "We consider it a privilege to serve our country and are proud of what we did and proud of our country."  He concluded that "despite everything that is happening around the world and today in DC, this is a great country.  Veterans stand when the fly walks by, we all stand up straight, and saluteā€¦ God Bless America."
 
For more pictures, see our Facebook page in the Totem. 
 

Thank you Totem Reporter Dann Mead Smith.

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